Scientists Warn: Volcanic Eruption Near Anchorage This Year Becoming More Likely

According to a recent report from the Alaska Volcano Observatory, a volcanic eruption at Mount Spurr near Anchorage in 2025 is deemed "probable."

The observatory stated that both the timing and magnitude of the eruption are still unclear. a notice published Tuesday , and it's also possible that an eruption might not occur at all.

The peak of Spurr, located 75 miles west of Anchorage, stands as the nearest active volcano to Alaska's most populous urban center.

The latest bulletin comes after another was released the previous month. that indicated 50-50 odds of an eruption Since then, according to coordinating scientist David Fee, two flyovers of the volcano have detected elevated concentrations of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and various other gases, which suggest the proximity of magma to the Earth's surface.

Sulfur dioxide levels last week during a flight were nine times higher than a similar flight in December, and data from the first March flight was preliminarily confirmed by another flight on Tuesday, prompting the new bulletin.

"There was essentially no activity initially, but now there is a significant amount of gas being released, notably CO2. This phenomenon, observed at volcanoes in Alaska and around the globe, typically indicates that an eruption is becoming increasingly probable," according to Fee.

Starting from April 2024, monitors have noticed an increasing frequency of quakes beneath and around the volcano. Additionally, they've observed the land surface near the volcano swelling upwards.

It's akin to what the mountain did previously. its 1992 eruption , which closed area airports and caused Southcentral residents to stay inside to avoid ash.

If the mountain does erupt, the observatory advises that up to a quarter-inch of ash could fall on Southcentral Alaska . Under a microscope, volcanic ash often resembles small flakes of glass. Inhaling it can cause breathing problems. Air filters can become clogged, and flights may be postponed or canceled to avoid ash clouds.

An eruption will likely be preceded by weeks of escalating activity, including nonstop earthquakes and melted ice and snow atop the volcano. That’s kept scientists from raising their alert levels.

"If significant and persistent volcanic tremors were observed, this would indicate that an eruption might be imminent. So far, such tremors haven’t been detected, but we are carefully monitoring for any indications of them appearing. Other signals may also suggest activity," Fee stated.

Certain observers have spotted a vapor cloud emanating from the peak of Spurr. This does not indicate an impending eruption, according to Fee. Such clouds can result from weather patterns just as readily as they can stem from volcanic activity.

Furthermore, an outburst is expected to originate from Crater Peak, which was also the site of Spurr’s eruptions in 1954 and 1992, instead of from the volcano’s peak itself.

The latest gas readings indicate that a new route to the Crater Peak vent has emerged, suggesting that fresh molten rock might ascend and cause an eruption at this location," according to the updated bulletin from the Alaska Volcano Observatory. "All recorded volcanic events have taken place at Crater Peak. It’s worth noting that the most recent documented eruption from the Spurr summit happened thousands of years back.

While the AVO keeps an eye on Mount Spurr, the agency faces financial instability due to unpredictable layoffs and budget holds implemented by the Trump administration.

The AVO represents a collaborative initiative involving both state and federal authorities. In February, employees from the federal sector were involved. had their payment card accounts suspended , disrupting the communication lines that send data from the volcano.

"Most of these issues have been addressed for now," stated Fee, who works as a state employee.

We haven't experienced any layoffs. Instead, we've faced various other effects," he stated. "Additionally, there are certain worries regarding the lease for the (AVO) building in Anchorage; however, let's hope this issue gets settled too.

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